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Journal Article

Modelling past and future land use and land cover dynamics in the Nakambe River Basin, West Africa


Yangouliba,  Gnibga Issoufou
External Organizations;

Zoungrana,  Benewindé Jean-Bosco
External Organizations;

Hackman,  Kwame Oppong
External Organizations;


Koch,  Hagen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;


Liersch,  Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Sintondji,  Luc Ollivier
External Organizations;

Dipama,  Jean-Marie
External Organizations;

Kwawuvi,  Daniel
External Organizations;

Ouedraogo,  Valentin
External Organizations;

Yabré,  Sadraki
External Organizations;

Bonkoungou,  Benjamin
External Organizations;

Sougué,  Madou
External Organizations;

Gadiaga,  Aliou
External Organizations;

Koffi,  Bérenger
External Organizations;

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Yangouliba, G. I., Zoungrana, B.-J.-B., Hackman, K. O., Koch, H., Liersch, S., Sintondji, L. O., Dipama, J.-M., Kwawuvi, D., Ouedraogo, V., Yabré, S., Bonkoungou, B., Sougué, M., Gadiaga, A., Koffi, B. (2023): Modelling past and future land use and land cover dynamics in the Nakambe River Basin, West Africa. - Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 9, 1651-1667.

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27489
Understanding land use and cover (LULC) dynamic is of great importance to sustainable development in Africa where deforestation is a common problem. This study aimed to assess the historical and future dynamics of LULC in the Nakambé River Basin. Landsat images were used to determine LULC dynamics for the years 1990, 2005 and 2020 using Random Forest classification system in Google Earth Engine while the predicted LULC of 2050 was simulated using the Markov Chain and Multi-Layer-Perceptron neural network in Land Change Modeler. The findings showed significant changes in LULC patterns. From 1990 to 2020, woodland and shrubland decreased by − 45% and − 68%, respectively, while water body, cropland and bare land/built-up increased by 233%, 51%, and 75%, correspondingly. From 2020 to 2050, the results revealed that under the Business-as-usual scenario, bare land/built-up and water bodies could continue to increase by 99% and 1%, respectively. However, cropland, shrubland, and woodland could decrease by − 32.61%, − 33.91%, and − 46.86%, respectively. Under the afforestation scenario, the contrary of Business-as-usual could occur. While woodland, shrubland, and cropland would increase by 22.24%, 51.57%, and 18.13%, correspondingly, between 2020 and 2050, the area covered by water bodies and bare land/built-up will decrease by − 6.16% and − 39.04%, respectively. The results of this research give an insight into past and future LULC dynamics in the Nakambé River Basin and suggest the need to strengthen the policies and actions for better land management in the region.