Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

McKay, David I. Armstrong; Staal, Arie; Abrams, Jesse F.; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Sakschewski, Boris; Loriani, Sina; Fetzer, Ingo; Cornell, Sarah E.; Rockström, Johan; Lenton, Timothy M.

doi:10.1126/science.abn7950

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Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Authors

McKay, David I. Armstrong
External Organizations;

Staal, Arie
External Organizations;

Abrams, Jesse F.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Ricarda.Winkelmann

Winkelmann, Ricarda
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Boris.Sakschewski

Sakschewski, Boris
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/sina.loriani

Loriani, Sina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Fetzer, Ingo
External Organizations;

Cornell, Sarah E.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/johan.rockstrom

Rockström, Johan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lenton, Timothy M.
External Organizations;

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引用

McKay, D. I. A., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377(6611):. doi:10.1126/science.abn7950.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27641

要旨

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.