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Journal Article

Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Authors

Guivarch,  Céline
External Organizations;

Le Gallic,  Thomas
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer,  Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Fragkos,  Panagiotis
External Organizations;

Huppmann,  Daniel
External Organizations;

Jaxa-Rozen,  Marc
External Organizations;

Keppo,  Ilkka
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler,  Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Krisztin,  Tamás
External Organizations;

Marangoni,  Giacomo
External Organizations;

Pye,  Steve
External Organizations;

Riahi,  Keywan
External Organizations;

Schaeffer,  Roberto
External Organizations;

Tavoni,  Massimo
External Organizations;

Trutnevyte,  Evelina
External Organizations;

van Vuuren,  Detlef
External Organizations;

Wagner,  Fabian
External Organizations;

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Citation

Guivarch, C., Le Gallic, T., Bauer, N., Fragkos, P., Huppmann, D., Jaxa-Rozen, M., Keppo, I., Kriegler, E., Krisztin, T., Marangoni, G., Pye, S., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Tavoni, M., Trutnevyte, E., van Vuuren, D., Wagner, F. (2022): Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights. - Nature Climate Change, 12, 5, 428-435.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27717
Abstract
As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.