Extreme rainfall reduces one-twelfth of China’s rice yield over the last two 
decades

Fu, Jin; Jian, Yiwei; Wang, Xuhui; Li, Laurent; Ciais, Philippe; Zscheischler, Jakob; Wang, Yin; Tang, Yanhong; Müller, Christoph; Webber, Heidi; Yang, Bo; Wang, Qihui; Cui, Xiaoqing; Huang, Weichen; Liu, Yongqiang; Zhao, Pengjun; Piao, Shilong; Zhou, Feng

doi:10.1038/s43016-023-00753-6

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Extreme rainfall reduces one-twelfth of China’s rice yield over the last two decades

Authors

Fu, Jin
External Organizations;

Jian, Yiwei
External Organizations;

Wang, Xuhui
External Organizations;

Li, Laurent
External Organizations;

Ciais, Philippe
External Organizations;

Zscheischler, Jakob
External Organizations;

Wang, Yin
External Organizations;

Tang, Yanhong
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Webber, Heidi
External Organizations;

Yang, Bo
External Organizations;

Wang, Qihui
External Organizations;

Cui, Xiaoqing
External Organizations;

Huang, Weichen
External Organizations;

Liu, Yongqiang
External Organizations;

Zhao, Pengjun
External Organizations;

Piao, Shilong
External Organizations;

Zhou, Feng
External Organizations;

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Citation

Fu, J., Jian, Y., Wang, X., Li, L., Ciais, P., Zscheischler, J., Wang, Y., Tang, Y., Müller, C., Webber, H., Yang, B., Wang, Q., Cui, X., Huang, W., Liu, Y., Zhao, P., Piao, S., Zhou, F. (2023): Extreme rainfall reduces one-twelfth of China’s rice yield over the last two decades. - Nature Food, 4, 416-426.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00753-6

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28309

Abstract

Extreme climate events constitute a major risk to global food production. Among these, extreme rainfall is often dismissed from historical analyses and future projections, the impacts and mechanisms of which remain poorly understood. Here we used long-term nationwide observations and multi-level rainfall manipulative experiments to explore the magnitude and mechanisms of extreme rainfall impacts on rice yield in China. We find that rice yield reductions due to extreme rainfall were comparable to those induced by extreme heat over the last two decades, reaching 7.6 ± 0.9% (one standard error) according to nationwide observations and 8.1 ± 1.1% according to the crop model incorporating the mechanisms revealed from manipulative experiments. Extreme rainfall reduces rice yield mainly by limiting nitrogen availability for tillering that lowers per-area effective panicles and by exerting physical disturbance on pollination that declines per-panicle filled grains. Considering these mechanisms, we projected ~8% additional yield reduction due to extreme rainfall under warmer climate by the end of the century. These findings demonstrate that it is critical to account for extreme rainfall in food security assessments.