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Journal Article

Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels


Liu,  Li-Jing
External Organizations;

Jiang,  Hong-Dian
External Organizations;

Liang,  Qiao-Mei
External Organizations;

Creutzig,  Felix
External Organizations;

Liao,  Hua
External Organizations;

Yao,  Yun-Fei
External Organizations;

Qian,  Xiang-Yan
External Organizations;

Ren,  Zhong-Yuan
External Organizations;

Qing,  Jing
External Organizations;

Cai,  Qi-Ran
External Organizations;


Edenhofer,  Ottmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Wei,  Yi-Ming
External Organizations;

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Liu, L.-J., Jiang, H.-D., Liang, Q.-M., Creutzig, F., Liao, H., Yao, Y.-F., Qian, X.-Y., Ren, Z.-Y., Qing, J., Cai, Q.-R., Edenhofer, O., Wei, Y.-M. (2023): Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels. - Nature Climate Change, 13, 290-296.

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28330
The Russia–Ukraine conflict lays bare the dependence of the European Union (EU) on fossil fuel imports from Russia. Here, we use a global computable general equilibrium model, C3IAM/GEEPA, to estimate CO2 emission and gross domestic product (GDP) impact of embargoing fossil fuels from Russia. We find that embargoes induce more than 10% reduction of CO2 emissions in the EU and slight increases of emissions in Russia, while both regions experience GDP losses (around 2% for the EU and about 5% for Russia, ignoring the relative impact of other sanctions). Reacting to increasing energy prices with demand-side response inside the EU would increase CO2 emission savings, while turning GDP losses into gains. Implementing a partial embargo with tariffs largely compensates for lost government revenue.