China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030 with optimal crop 
management

Luo, Ning; Meng, Qingfeng; Feng, Puyu; Qu, Ziren; Yu, Yonghong; Liu, De Li; Müller, Christoph; Wang, Pu

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-38355-2

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China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030 with optimal crop management

Authors

/persons/resource/ning.luo

Luo, Ning
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Meng, Qingfeng
External Organizations;

Feng, Puyu
External Organizations;

Qu, Ziren
External Organizations;

Yu, Yonghong
External Organizations;

Liu, De Li
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Wang, Pu
External Organizations;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7857034
(Supplementary material)

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s41467-023-38355-2.pdf
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Citation

Luo, N., Meng, Q., Feng, P., Qu, Z., Yu, Y., Liu, D. L., Müller, C., Wang, P. (2023): China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030 with optimal crop management. - Nature Communications, 14, 2637.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38355-2

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28474

Abstract

Population growth and economic development in China has increased the demand for food and animal feed, raising questions regarding China’s future maize production self-sufficiency. Here, we address this challenge by combining data-driven projections with a machine learning method on data from 402 stations, with data from 87 field experiments across China. Current maize yield would be roughly doubled with the implementation of optimal planting density and management. In the 2030 s, we estimate a 52% yield improvement through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP585), compared with a historical climate trend. Based on our results, yield gains from soil improvement outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. This implies that China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas. Our results challenge the view of yield stagnation in most global areas and provide an example of how food security can be achieved with optimal crop-soil management under future climate change scenarios.