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Understanding and acting on positive tipping points

Authors

Smith,  Steven R.
External Organizations;

Fesenfeld,  Lukas
External Organizations;

Constantino,  Sara M.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/gaupp

Gaupp,  Franziska
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Spaiser,  Viktoria
External Organizations;

Bailey,  Emma
External Organizations;

Powell,  Tom
External Organizations;

Zimm,  Caroline
External Organizations;

Barbrook-Johnson,  Peter
External Organizations;

Bhowmik,  Avit
External Organizations;

Pereira,  Laura
External Organizations;

Stadelmann-Steffen,  Isabelle
External Organizations;

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Citation

Smith, S. R., Fesenfeld, L., Constantino, S. M., Gaupp, F., Spaiser, V., Bailey, E., Powell, T., Zimm, C., Barbrook-Johnson, P., Bhowmik, A., Pereira, L., Stadelmann-Steffen, I. (2023): Understanding and acting on positive tipping points. - In: Lenton, T. M., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Loriani, S., Abrams, J. F., Lade, S. J., Donges, J. F., Buxton, J. E., Milkoreit, M., Powell, T., Smith, S. R., Zimm, C., Bailey, E., Dyke, J. G., Ghadiali, A., Laybourn, L. (Eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023, Exeter : University of Exeter, 10-19.


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29405
Abstract
The human systems and enablers of positive tipping points (PTPs) span multiple domains of technology, politics, economy and social behaviour. Many key features of Earth system tipping points ESTPs also apply to PTPs, including the presence of reinforcing and dampening feedbacks, nonlinear change, cascade effects, resilience, and path dependence. The primary differences with PTPs (as opposed to Earth System Tipping Points) are intention, agency and desired outcomes. The intention of PTPs is to promote (not prevent, as in ESTPs) tipping and system transformation. Agency is focused on interventions that maximise the potential for tipping to occur. Desired outcomes are systems-compatible with a safe and just world. To encourage desired outcomes, agents can intervene in three ways: 1) they can create the enabling conditions for a tipping point; 2) they can enhance the reinforcing feedbacks that drive change, and/or neutralise the dampening feedbacks that resist change; and 3) they can attempt to trigger positive tipping points. PTP system dynamics typically involve three phases of enabling, accelerating and then stabilising change. Once a tipping point has been crossed, a system enters an accelerating phase of nonlinear change dominated by reinforcing feedbacks, before stabilising again in a qualitatively different state. Other, undesired outcomes are also possible, including ‘shallower’, less sustainable outcomes, and unintended consequences. Tipping cascades can occur across multiple sectors and domains, as one tipping point triggers another, and then another, potentially leading to widespread societal change.