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Abstract

Madagascar has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which
is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the
impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its
impacts is available for the country’s agricultural sector. This study aims to provide a
comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of two potential
adaptation strategies that can guide local decision-makers on adaptation planning
and implementation in Madagascar. The impact assessment consists of several steps,
including climate projections based on three emissions scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3-
RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario), modelling and comparison of future suitability and
yield of three widely used crops (coffee, vanilla, pepper) and an assessment of yield
changes in peanut production under future climate conditions.
Further, the study outlines gendered challenges and support requirements in national
adaptation planning. The simulation results show that Robusta coffee is less sensitive
to heat compared to Arabica coffee. The suitable area for Robusta coffee remains
almost stable under changing climate conditions, while the suitability of Arabica
coffee is projected decrease by 7 % on a national level. Simulation results indicate a
slight increase in suitability for vanilla production, particularly in the main growing
region Sava, but also in Atsimo Atsinanana, thus safeguarding an important source of
income for local farmers and guaranteeing the sustainability of Madagascar´s most
valuable export product. Furthermore, climate change is projected to have a rather
low impact on the agro-climatic suitability of pepper production. When averaged
across Madagascar, the decrease in suitability is less than 1 %, however, there are some
noteworthy differences across regions and scenarios.
The results for the process-based peanut modelling show that rising temperature
and reduced rainfall amounts are likely to decrease peanut yields across Madagascar.
However, elevated atmospheric CO2 is projected to offset these negative impacts. The
study furthermore evaluated the efficiency of two adaptation strategies, namely the
use of locally adapted crop varieties and flexible planting dates. The simulation results
suggest that the traditional cultivar Kanety is more suited in future climate change
scenarios since yields for Kanety are generally higher than those of the improved
variety Fleur 11. Interestingly, opting for flexible planting dates as opposed to a fixed
planting date does not result in enhanced yields. This result underlines the importance
of regional crop calendars to determine optimal sowing dates.
The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and
agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the
resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a
changing climate in Madagascar.