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Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Authors
/persons/resource/sina.loriani

Loriani,  Sina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Aksenov,  Yevgeny
External Organizations;

Dijkstra,  Henk
External Organizations;

England,  Matt
External Organizations;

Fedorov,  Alexey
External Organizations;

Messori,  Gabriele
External Organizations;

Pausata,  Francesco
External Organizations;

Sallée,  JB
External Organizations;

Sinha,  Bablu
External Organizations;

Sherwood,  Steven
External Organizations;

Tharammal,  Thejna
External Organizations;

McKay,  David I. Armstrong
External Organizations;

Bala,  Govindasamy
External Organizations;

Born,  Andreas
External Organizations;

Drijfhout,  Sybren
External Organizations;

Jackson,  Laura
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/kornhuber

Kornhuber,  Kai
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Chiessi,  Cristiano M.
External Organizations;

Rynders,  Stefanie
External Organizations;

Swingedouw,  Didier
External Organizations;

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Citation

Loriani, S., Aksenov, Y., Dijkstra, H., England, M., Fedorov, A., Messori, G., Pausata, F., Sallée, J., Sinha, B., Sherwood, S., Tharammal, T., McKay, D. I. A., Bala, G., Born, A., Drijfhout, S., Jackson, L., Kornhuber, K., Chiessi, C. M., Rynders, S., Swingedouw, D. (2023): Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations. - In: Lenton, T., Armstrong McKay, D., Loriani, S., Abrams, J., Lade, S., Donges, J. F., Milkoreit, M., Powell, T., Smith, S., Zimm, C., Buxton, J., Bailey, E., Laybourn, L., Ghadiali, A., Dyke, J. (Eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023, Exeter : University of Exeter, 122-143.


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29513
Abstract
This chapter assesses scientific evidence for tipping points across circulations in the ocean and atmosphere. The warming of oceans, modified wind patterns and increasing freshwater influx from melting ice hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns. We find evidence for tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG), and the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, which may collapse under warmer and ‘fresher’ (i.e. less salty) conditions. A slowdown or collapse of these oceanic circulations would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the climate system, such as shifts in the monsoons. There is evidence that this has happened in the past, having led to vastly different states of the Sahara following abrupt changes in the West African monsoon, which we also classify as a tipping system. Evidence about tipping of the monsoons over South America and Asia is limited, however large-scale deforestation or air pollution are considered as potential sources of destabilisation. Although theoretically possible, there is little indication for tipping points in tropical clouds or mid-latitude atmospheric circulations. Similarly, tipping towards a more extreme or persistent El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is not sufficiently supported by models and observations. While the thresholds for many of these systems are uncertain, tipping could be devastating for many millions of people. Stabilising climate (along with minimising other pressures, like aerosol pollution and ecosystem degradation) is critical for reducing the likelihood of reaching tipping points in the ocean-atmosphere system.