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  Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Loriani, S., Aksenov, Y., Dijkstra, H., England, M., Fedorov, A., Messori, G., Pausata, F., Sallée, J., Sinha, B., Sherwood, S., Tharammal, T., McKay, D. I. A., Bala, G., Born, A., Drijfhout, S., Jackson, L., Kornhuber, K., Chiessi, C. M., Rynders, S., Swingedouw, D. (2023): Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations. - In: Lenton, T., Armstrong McKay, D., Loriani, S., Abrams, J., Lade, S., Donges, J. F., Milkoreit, M., Powell, T., Smith, S., Zimm, C., Buxton, J., Bailey, E., Laybourn, L., Ghadiali, A., Dyke, J. (Eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023, Exeter : University of Exeter, 122-143.

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 Creators:
Loriani, Sina1, Author              
Aksenov, Yevgeny2, Author
Dijkstra, Henk2, Author
England, Matt2, Author
Fedorov, Alexey2, Author
Messori, Gabriele2, Author
Pausata, Francesco2, Author
Sallée, JB2, Author
Sinha, Bablu2, Author
Sherwood, Steven2, Author
Tharammal, Thejna2, Author
McKay, David I. Armstrong2, Author
Bala, Govindasamy2, Author
Born, Andreas2, Author
Drijfhout, Sybren2, Author
Jackson, Laura2, Author
Kornhuber, Kai1, Author              
Chiessi, Cristiano M.2, Author
Rynders, Stefanie2, Author
Swingedouw, Didier2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: This chapter assesses scientific evidence for tipping points across circulations in the ocean and atmosphere. The warming of oceans, modified wind patterns and increasing freshwater influx from melting ice hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns. We find evidence for tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG), and the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, which may collapse under warmer and ‘fresher’ (i.e. less salty) conditions. A slowdown or collapse of these oceanic circulations would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the climate system, such as shifts in the monsoons. There is evidence that this has happened in the past, having led to vastly different states of the Sahara following abrupt changes in the West African monsoon, which we also classify as a tipping system. Evidence about tipping of the monsoons over South America and Asia is limited, however large-scale deforestation or air pollution are considered as potential sources of destabilisation. Although theoretically possible, there is little indication for tipping points in tropical clouds or mid-latitude atmospheric circulations. Similarly, tipping towards a more extreme or persistent El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is not sufficiently supported by models and observations. While the thresholds for many of these systems are uncertain, tipping could be devastating for many millions of people. Stabilising climate (along with minimising other pressures, like aerosol pollution and ecosystem degradation) is critical for reducing the likelihood of reaching tipping points in the ocean-atmosphere system.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-12-062023-12-062023-12-06
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
 Degree: -

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Title: The Global Tipping Points Report 2023
Source Genre: Collected Edition
 Creator(s):
Lenton, T.1, Editor
Armstrong McKay, D.I.1, Editor
Loriani, Sina2, Editor            
Abrams, J.F.1, Editor
Lade, S.J.1, Editor
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann2, Editor            
Milkoreit, M.1, Editor
Powell, T.1, Editor
Smith, S.R.1, Editor
Zimm, C.1, Editor
Buxton, J.E.1, Editor
Bailey, E.1, Editor
Laybourn, L.1, Editor
Ghadiali, A.1, Editor
Dyke, J.G.1, Editor
Affiliations:
1 External Organizations, ou_persistent22            
2 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13            
Publ. Info: Exeter : University of Exeter
Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 122 - 143 Identifier: -