Substantial differences in crop yield sensitivities between models call for 
functionality-based model evaluation

Müller, Christoph; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Franke, James A.; Balkovič, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Dury, Marie; Falloon, Pete; Folberth, Christian; Hank, Tobias; Hoffmann, Munir; Izaurralde, Roberto; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Khabarov, Nikolay; Liu, Wenfeng; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas; Wang, Xuhui; Williams, Karina Emmanuelle; Zabel, Florian; Elliott, Joshua W

doi:10.1029/2023EF003773

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Substantial differences in crop yield sensitivities between models call for functionality-based model evaluation

Authors

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr, Jonas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Franke, James A.
External Organizations;

Balkovič, Juraj
External Organizations;

Ciais, Philippe
External Organizations;

Dury, Marie
External Organizations;

Falloon, Pete
External Organizations;

Folberth, Christian
External Organizations;

Hank, Tobias
External Organizations;

Hoffmann, Munir
External Organizations;

Izaurralde, Roberto
External Organizations;

Jacquemin, Ingrid
External Organizations;

Khabarov, Nikolay
External Organizations;

Liu, Wenfeng
External Organizations;

Olin, Stefan
External Organizations;

Pugh, Thomas
External Organizations;

Wang, Xuhui
External Organizations;

Williams, Karina Emmanuelle
External Organizations;

Zabel, Florian
External Organizations;

Elliott, Joshua W
External Organizations;

External Ressource

https://zenodo.org/records/2582531
(Supplementary material)

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29624oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 7MB

Supplementary Material (public)

Citation

Müller, C., Jägermeyr, J., Franke, J. A., Balkovič, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., Falloon, P., Folberth, C., Hank, T., Hoffmann, M., Izaurralde, R., Jacquemin, I., Khabarov, N., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T., Wang, X., Williams, K. E., Zabel, F., Elliott, J. W. (2024): Substantial differences in crop yield sensitivities between models call for functionality-based model evaluation. - Earth's Future, 12, 3, e2023EF003773.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003773

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29624

Abstract

Crop models are often used to project future crop yield under climate and global change and typically show a broad range of outcomes. To understand differences in modeled responses, we analysed modeled crop yield response types using impact response surfaces along four drivers of crop yield: carbon dioxide (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N). Crop yield response types help to understand differences in simulated responses per driver and their combinations rather than aggregated changes in yields as the result of simultaneous changes in various drivers. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual drivers are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response types across models and their configurations suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model evaluation based on emergent functionality not only against historical yield observations but also against dedicated experiments across different drivers to analyze emergent functional patterns of crop models.