Increasing the resilience of the Texas power grid against extreme storms by 
hardening critical lines

Stürmer, Julian; Plietzsch, Anton; Vogt, Thomas; Hellmann, Frank; Kurths, Jürgen; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja; Anvari, Mehrnaz

doi:10.1038/s41560-023-01434-1

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学術論文

Increasing the resilience of the Texas power grid against extreme storms by hardening critical lines

Authors

/persons/resource/julian.stuermer

Stürmer, Julian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/plietzsch

Plietzsch, Anton
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/thomas.vogt

Vogt, Thomas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/frank.hellmann

Hellmann, Frank
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths, Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/christian.otto

Otto, Christian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler, Katja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Mehrnaz.Anvari

Anvari, Mehrnaz
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

URL

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10077864
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29654oa.pdf
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引用

Stürmer, J., Plietzsch, A., Vogt, T., Hellmann, F., Kurths, J., Otto, C., Frieler, K., & Anvari, M. (2024). Increasing the resilience of the Texas power grid against extreme storms by hardening critical lines. Nature Energy, 9, 526-535. doi:10.1038/s41560-023-01434-1.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29654

要旨

The Texas power grid on the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here we introduce a new approach that combines a probabilistic line failure model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the spatio-temporal co-evolution of wind-induced failures of high-voltage transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical TCs. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to existing static approaches, it provides a notable advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that hardening only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outage by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a so far missing tool for identifying effective options to strengthen power grids against future TC strikes, even under limited knowledge.