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Increased projected changes in quasi-resonant amplification and persistent summer weather extremes in the latest multimodel climate projections

Urheber*innen
/persons/resource/oliveiraguimaraes

Guimarães,  Sullyandro Oliveira
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mann,  Michael E.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Stefan.Rahmstorf

Rahmstorf,  Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/petri

Petri,  Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Steinman,  Byron A.
External Organizations;

Brouillette,  Daniel J.
External Organizations;

Christiansen,  Shannon
External Organizations;

Li,  Xueke
External Organizations;

Externe Ressourcen

https://zenodo.org/records/10364064
(Ergänzendes Material)

Volltexte (frei zugänglich)

30231oa.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 5MB

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Zitation

Guimarães, S. O., Mann, M. E., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S., Steinman, B. A., Brouillette, D. J., Christiansen, S., Li, X. (2024): Increased projected changes in quasi-resonant amplification and persistent summer weather extremes in the latest multimodel climate projections. - Scientific Reports, 14, 21991.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-72787-0


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30231
Zusammenfassung
High-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wave numbers 6–8 associated with the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) have been linked to persistent summer extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere. QRA is not well-resolved in current generation climate models, therefore, necessitating an alternative approach to assessing their behavior. Using a previously-developed fingerprint-based semi-empirical approach, we project future occurrence of QRA events based on a QRA index derived from the zonally averaged surface temperature field, comparing results from CMIP 5 and 6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). There is a general agreement among models, with most simulations projecting substantial increase in QRA index. Larger increases are found among CMIP6-SSP5-8.5 (42 models, 46 realizations), with 85% of models displaying a positive trend, as compared with 60% of CMIP5-RCP8.5 (33 models, 75 realizations), with a reduced spread among CMIP6-SSP5-8.5 models. CMIP6-SSP3-7.0 (23 models, 26 realizations) simulations display qualitatively similar behavior to CMIP6-SSP5-8.5, indicating a substantial increase in QRA events under business-as-usual emissions scenarios, and the results hold regardless of the increase in climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Projected aerosol reductions in CMIP6-SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF (5 models, 16 realizations) lead to halting effect in QRA index and Arctic Amplification during the 1st half of the twenty-first century. Our analysis suggests that anthropogenic warming will likely lead to an even more substantial increase in QRA events (and associated summer weather extremes) than indicated by past analyses.