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Journal Article

Increased projected changes in quasi-resonant amplification and persistent summer weather extremes in the latest multimodel climate projections

Authors
/persons/resource/oliveiraguimaraes

Guimarães,  Sullyandro Oliveira
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mann,  Michael E.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Stefan.Rahmstorf

Rahmstorf,  Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/petri

Petri,  Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Steinman,  Byron A.
External Organizations;

Brouillette,  Daniel J.
External Organizations;

Christiansen,  Shannon
External Organizations;

Li,  Xueke
External Organizations;

External Ressource

https://zenodo.org/records/10364064
(Supplementary material)

Fulltext (public)

30231oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 5MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Guimarães, S. O., Mann, M. E., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S., Steinman, B. A., Brouillette, D. J., Christiansen, S., Li, X. (2024): Increased projected changes in quasi-resonant amplification and persistent summer weather extremes in the latest multimodel climate projections. - Scientific Reports, 14, 21991.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-72787-0


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30231
Abstract
High-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wave numbers 6–8 associated with the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) have been linked to persistent summer extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere. QRA is not well-resolved in current generation climate models, therefore, necessitating an alternative approach to assessing their behavior. Using a previously-developed fingerprint-based semi-empirical approach, we project future occurrence of QRA events based on a QRA index derived from the zonally averaged surface temperature field, comparing results from CMIP 5 and 6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). There is a general agreement among models, with most simulations projecting substantial increase in QRA index. Larger increases are found among CMIP6-SSP5-8.5 (42 models, 46 realizations), with 85% of models displaying a positive trend, as compared with 60% of CMIP5-RCP8.5 (33 models, 75 realizations), with a reduced spread among CMIP6-SSP5-8.5 models. CMIP6-SSP3-7.0 (23 models, 26 realizations) simulations display qualitatively similar behavior to CMIP6-SSP5-8.5, indicating a substantial increase in QRA events under business-as-usual emissions scenarios, and the results hold regardless of the increase in climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Projected aerosol reductions in CMIP6-SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF (5 models, 16 realizations) lead to halting effect in QRA index and Arctic Amplification during the 1st half of the twenty-first century. Our analysis suggests that anthropogenic warming will likely lead to an even more substantial increase in QRA events (and associated summer weather extremes) than indicated by past analyses.