A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change

Emmerling, Johannes; Andreoni, Pietro; Charalampidis, Ioannis; Dasgupta, Shouro; Dennig, Francis; Feindt, Simon; Fragkiadakis, Dimitris; Fragkos, Panagiotis; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gilli, Martino; Grottera, Carolina; Guivarch, Celine; Kornek, Ulrike; Kriegler, Elmar; Malerba, Daniele; Marangoni, Giacomo; Méjean, Aurélie; Nijsse, Femke; Piontek, Franziska; Simsek, Yeliz; Sörgel, Björn; Taconet, Nicolas; Vandyck, Toon; Young-Brun, Marie; Zhao, Shiya; Zheng, Yu; Tavoni, Massimo

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02151-7

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A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change

Authors

Emmerling, Johannes
External Organizations;

Andreoni, Pietro
External Organizations;

Charalampidis, Ioannis
External Organizations;

Dasgupta, Shouro
External Organizations;

Dennig, Francis
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Simon.Feindt

Feindt, Simon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Fragkiadakis, Dimitris
External Organizations;

Fragkos, Panagiotis
External Organizations;

Fujimori, Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Gilli, Martino
External Organizations;

Grottera, Carolina
External Organizations;

Guivarch, Celine
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/kornek.ulrike

Kornek, Ulrike
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Malerba, Daniele
External Organizations;

Marangoni, Giacomo
External Organizations;

Méjean, Aurélie
External Organizations;

Nijsse, Femke
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/franziska.piontek

Piontek, Franziska
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Simsek, Yeliz
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/bjoern.soergel

Sörgel, Björn
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/nicolas.taconet

Taconet, Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Vandyck, Toon
External Organizations;

Young-Brun, Marie
External Organizations;

Zhao, Shiya
External Organizations;

Zheng, Yu
External Organizations;

Tavoni, Massimo
External Organizations;

External Ressource

https://github.com/JohannesEmm/navigate_inequality_mip
(Supplementary material)

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s41558-024-02151-7.pdf
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Citation

Emmerling, J., Andreoni, P., Charalampidis, I., Dasgupta, S., Dennig, F., Feindt, S., Fragkiadakis, D., Fragkos, P., Fujimori, S., Gilli, M., Grottera, C., Guivarch, C., Kornek, U., Kriegler, E., Malerba, D., Marangoni, G., Méjean, A., Nijsse, F., Piontek, F., Simsek, Y., Sörgel, B., Taconet, N., Vandyck, T., Young-Brun, M., Zhao, S., Zheng, Y., Tavoni, M. (2024 online): A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change. - Nature Climate Change.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02151-7

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30541

Abstract

Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated issues. Despite growing empirical evidence on the distributional implications of climate policies and climate risks, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. Here we fill this gap through an ensemble of eight large-scale integrated assessment models that belong to different economic paradigms and feature income heterogeneity. We quantify the distributional implications of climate impacts and of the varying compensation schemes of climate policies compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. By 2100, climate impacts will increase inequality by 1.4 points of the Gini index on average. Maintaining global mean temperature below 1.5 °C reduces long-term inequality increase by two-thirds but increases it slightly in the short term. However, equal per-capita redistribution can offset the short-term effect, lowering the Gini index by almost two points. We quantify model uncertainty and find robust evidence that well-designed policies can help stabilize climate and promote economic inclusion.