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Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results

Urheber*innen

Yao,  Yi
External Organizations;

Ducharne,  Agnès
External Organizations;

Cook,  Benjamin I.
External Organizations;

De Hertog,  Steven J.
External Organizations;

Aas,  Kjetil Schanke
External Organizations;

Arboleda-Obando,  Pedro F.
External Organizations;

Buzan,  Jonathan
External Organizations;

Colin,  Jeanne
External Organizations;

Costantini,  Maya
External Organizations;

Decharme,  Bertrand
External Organizations;

Lawrence,  David M.
External Organizations;

Lawrence,  Peter
External Organizations;

Leung,  L. Ruby
External Organizations;

Lo,  Min-Hui
External Organizations;

Devaraju,  Narayanappa
External Organizations;

Wieder,  William R.
External Organizations;

Wu,  Ren-Jie
External Organizations;

Zhou,  Tian
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr,  Jonas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

McDermid,  Sonali
External Organizations;

Pokhrel,  Yadu
External Organizations;

Elling,  Maxwell
External Organizations;

Hanasaki,  Naota
External Organizations;

Muñoz,  Paul
External Organizations;

Nazarenko,  Larissa S.
External Organizations;

Otta,  Kedar
External Organizations;

Satoh,  Yusuke
External Organizations;

Yokohata,  Tokuta
External Organizations;

Jin,  Lei
External Organizations;

Wang,  Xuhui
External Organizations;

Mishra,  Vimal
External Organizations;

Ghosh,  Subimal
External Organizations;

Thiery,  Wim
External Organizations;

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Volltexte (frei zugänglich)

s41467-025-56356-1.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 4MB

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Zitation

Yao, Y., Ducharne, A., Cook, B. I., De Hertog, S. J., Aas, K. S., Arboleda-Obando, P. F., Buzan, J., Colin, J., Costantini, M., Decharme, B., Lawrence, D. M., Lawrence, P., Leung, L. R., Lo, M.-H., Devaraju, N., Wieder, W. R., Wu, R.-J., Zhou, T., Jägermeyr, J., McDermid, S., Pokhrel, Y., Elling, M., Hanasaki, N., Muñoz, P., Nazarenko, L. S., Otta, K., Satoh, Y., Yokohata, T., Jin, L., Wang, X., Mishra, V., Ghosh, S., Thiery, W. (2025): Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results. - Nature Communications, 16, 1045.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56356-1


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_31836
Zusammenfassung
Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that irrigation expansion causes a rapid increase in irrigation water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times less likely). However, due to the irrigation-induced increase in air humidity, the cooling effect of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress is less pronounced or even reversed, depending on the heat stress metric. In summary, this study indicates that irrigation deployment is not an efficient adaptation measure to escalating human heat stress under climate change, calling for carefully dealing with the increased exposure of local people to moist-heat stress.