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Journal Article

Shifting dominant periods in extreme climate impacts under global warming

Authors
/persons/resource/karim.zantout

Zantout,  Karim       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Balkovic,  Juraj
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/maik.billing

Billing,  Maik       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Folberth,  Christian
External Organizations;

Gosling,  Simon N.
External Organizations;

Hank,  Tobias
External Organizations;

Hantson,  Stijn
External Organizations;

Iizumi,  Toshichika
External Organizations;

Ito,  Akihiko
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr,  Jonas       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Jain,  Atul K.
External Organizations;

Khabarov,  Nikolay
External Organizations;

Kou-Giesbrecht,  Sian
External Organizations;

Li,  Fang
External Organizations;

Li,  Mengxue
External Organizations;

Lin,  Tzu-Shun
External Organizations;

Liu,  Wenfeng
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller,  Christoph       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Okada,  Masashi
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sebastian.ostberg

Ostberg,  Sebastian       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Otta,  Kedar
External Organizations;

Rabin,  Sam
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer,  Christopher P. O.       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Scheer,  Clemens
External Organizations;

Schneider,  Julia M.
External Organizations;

Zabel,  Florian
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler,  Katja       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe,  Jacob       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Resource

https://data.isimip.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.920810
(Research data)

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Fulltext (public)

s41467-025-65600-7.pdf
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Citation

Zantout, K., Balkovic, J., Billing, M., Folberth, C., Gosling, S. N., Hank, T., Hantson, S., Iizumi, T., Ito, A., Jägermeyr, J., Jain, A. K., Khabarov, N., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Li, F., Li, M., Lin, T.-S., Liu, W., Müller, C., Okada, M., Ostberg, S., Otta, K., Rabin, S., Reyer, C. P. O., Scheer, C., Schneider, J. M., Zabel, F., Frieler, K., Schewe, J. (2025): Shifting dominant periods in extreme climate impacts under global warming. - Nature Communications, 16, 9746.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65600-7


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33258
Abstract
Spatio-temporal patterns of extreme climate events have been extensively studied, yet two questions remain underexplored: Do such events occur regularly, and how do regularity patterns change under global warming? We address these questions by investigating dominant periods in crop failure, heatwave, and wildfire data. Here, we show that under pre-industrial conditions dominant periods emerge in 28% of cropland exposed to crop failure and 10% of wildfire-affected areas, likely related to climatic oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, while heatwaves occur irregularly. The number of dominant periods increases by 2–13% during the transition from the pre-industrial era to the anthropocene. In the anthropocene, the occurrence of extreme events shifts towards monotonic growth, replacing previous natural regularity patterns. Linearly de-trended projections reveal an additional shift towards smaller dominant periods due to climate change. These shifts in regularity are crucial for adaptation planning, and our method offers an additional approach for studying extreme events.