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From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system

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/persons/resource/Felix.Schreyer

Schreyer,  Felix       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Falko.Ueckerdt

Ueckerdt,  Falko       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Robert.Pietzcker

Pietzcker,  Robert C.       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/adrian.odenweller

Odenweller,  Adrian       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/anne.merfort

Merfort,  Anne       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/renato.rodrigues

Rodrigues,  Renato
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jessica.Strefler

Strefler,  Jessica
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Fabrice.Lecuyer

Lécuyer,  Fabrice
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14016560
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https://github.com/fschreyer/remind/tree/FossilFree_master
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s41467-025-66682-z.pdf
(???ENUM_CONTENTCATEGORY_publisher-version???), 8???ViewItemMedium_lblFileSizeMB???

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Schreyer, F., Ueckerdt, F., Pietzcker, R. C., Odenweller, A., Merfort, A., Rodrigues, R., Strefler, J., Lécuyer, F., Luderer, G. (2025): From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system. - Nature Communications, 16, 10700.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66682-z


???ViewItemOverview_lblCiteAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33521
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The EU climate neutrality goal requires a strong reduction in fossil fuel use. However, whether a complete phase-out is feasible and desirable remains unclear. Using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the additional effort needed to achieve a nearly complete EU-wide phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050 compared to a least-cost net-zero scenario. We show that in the least-cost scenario fossil fuel consumption already decreases by 90% from 2020 to 2050 and is compensated by renewable power, direct electrification, as well as some hydrogen and biofuels. However, hard-to-replace oil-based hydrocarbons and natural gas persist primarily in the chemical industry, aviation and shipping. Phasing them out requires the large-scale deployment of costly carbon-neutral e-fuels, which substantially increases marginal abatement costs from 460 EUR to 630 EUR tCO2-1 (500-1000 EUR tCO2-1). Our works shows the additional transformation challenges if the EU aims to strengthen its climate policy commitment with a full fossil phase-out target.