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Due to insufficient action in recent years, the world will very likely reach 1.5°C of warming by the early 2030s. This means the world is headed towards a period of overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
The high risks and damages of overshooting 1.5°C have been well established by the scientific community. Policy needs to now focus on limiting both the magnitude and duration of overshoot to bring warming back below 1.5°C before 2100.
Overshooting 1.5°C does not mean we need change the Paris Agreement’s goals, but rather double down on their implementation. 1.5°C was chosen for good reason. Ten years on from Paris, the science is starker than ever – 1.5°C is planetary limit beyond which climate impacts escalate and risk triggering catastrophic tipping points.
Legally, morally and politically, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit stands. It now acts as a North Star, guiding ambition and action for the world to avoid long-term overshoot of 1.5ºC and the catastrophic impacts this would entail.
This new study shows how to limit the overshoot of 1.5°C to the lowest possible level and return warming back well below 1.5°C by 2100 by looking at the highest possible ambition that could be undertaken by countries, starting in 2025.