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Journal Article

Anticipating climate impacts on nutrition through climate–crop nutrient modelling

Authors

Carducci,  Bianca
External Organizations;

Guarin,  Jose Rafael
External Organizations;

Karl,  Kevin
External Organizations;

Ziska,  Lewis
External Organizations;

Yang,  Meijian
External Organizations;

Fanzo,  Jessica
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr,  Jonas       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Ruane,  Alex C.
External Organizations;

Hoogenboom,  Gerrit
External Organizations;

Herrero,  Mario
External Organizations;

Contreras,  Erik Mencos
External Organizations;

Kozlowski,  Natalie
External Organizations;

Rosenzweig,  Cynthia
External Organizations;

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Citation

Carducci, B., Guarin, J. R., Karl, K., Ziska, L., Yang, M., Fanzo, J., Jägermeyr, J., Ruane, A. C., Hoogenboom, G., Herrero, M., Contreras, E. M., Kozlowski, N., Rosenzweig, C. (2025): Anticipating climate impacts on nutrition through climate–crop nutrient modelling. - Nature Climate Change, 15, 1165-1172.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02470-3


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33735
Abstract
Micronutrient deficiencies from poor dietary diversity remain a global health challenge. This issue is exacerbated by climate change-driven extreme weather events that impact crop quantity and quality. While process-based crop models effectively simulate plant nutrient (N, P, K) dynamics for productivity projections, they lack the ability to assess crop nutritional content. This Perspective proposes a framework for integrating nutrient dynamics into crop models for informing nutrition security strategies amid climate change. We delineate key biological pathways influencing nutrient uptake, translocation and density in response to elevated CO2, temperature and low precipitation. We highlight the scarcity of comprehensive datasets, underscoring the need for urgent, collaborative research to amass foundational data and models to ensure nutritional integrity in an uncertain climate.