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Journal Article

Climate-crop models to support opportunity crop adaptation in Africa

Authors

Yang,  Meijian
External Organizations;

Guarin,  Jose Rafael
External Organizations;

Freduah,  Bright S.
External Organizations;

Wesley,  Gershom O.
External Organizations;

MacCarthy,  Dilys S.
External Organizations;

Narh,  Stephen
External Organizations;

Castellano,  Andres
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr,  Jonas       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Karl,  Kevin
External Organizations;

Mendez Leal,  Elena
External Organizations;

Asseng,  Senthold
External Organizations;

Zhao,  Chuang
External Organizations;

Ruane,  Alex C.
External Organizations;

Rosenzweig,  Cynthia E.
External Organizations;

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s41467-025-66180-2.pdf
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Citation

Yang, M., Guarin, J. R., Freduah, B. S., Wesley, G. O., MacCarthy, D. S., Narh, S., Castellano, A., Jägermeyr, J., Karl, K., Mendez Leal, E., Asseng, S., Zhao, C., Ruane, A. C., Rosenzweig, C. E. (2025): Climate-crop models to support opportunity crop adaptation in Africa. - Nature Communications, 16, 11186.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66180-2


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33780
Abstract
In an era marked by climatic uncertainties and burgeoning food security challenges, climate-crop models emerge as important tools for guiding investments in climate-resilient agriculture. Here, we construct climate-crop model applications for 24 crops spanning the African food basket, including cereals, legumes, oilseeds, roots/tubers, and vegetables, in support of the Vision for Adapted Crops & Soils (VACS) program. Notably, we expand the modeling framework for 19 “opportunity” crops that have hitherto been underrepresented or overlooked but hold potential to bolster agricultural resilience across the continent. We calibrate and parameterize our process-based models using field observations and comprehensive literature reviews. We evaluate the model outputs spatially and temporally against national crop statistics across Africa, showing acceptable reproduction of yields and response to reported extreme droughts and heat waves. This work offers a scalable framework for climate-crop modeling and impact assessments related to food security in Africa and beyond.