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Journal Article

Potential expansion of wheat planting areas driven by climate warming offsets yield losses and enhances global production

Authors

Cong,  Jiahui
External Organizations;

Zhao,  Chuang
External Organizations;

Asseng,  Senthold
External Organizations;

Wang,  Xuhui
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller,  Christoph       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr,  Jonas       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Tian,  Xingshuai
External Organizations;

Liu,  Zhijuan
External Organizations;

Zhao,  Jin
External Organizations;

Gao,  Bingbo
External Organizations;

Zhang,  Zhentao
External Organizations;

Yang,  Xiaoguang
External Organizations;

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Citation

Cong, J., Zhao, C., Asseng, S., Wang, X., Müller, C., Jägermeyr, J., Tian, X., Liu, Z., Zhao, J., Gao, B., Zhang, Z., Yang, X. (2026): Potential expansion of wheat planting areas driven by climate warming offsets yield losses and enhances global production. - One Earth, 9, 1, 101464.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101464


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33996
Abstract
Climate change threatens global food security by reducing crop yields under rising temperatures. Accurately projecting the production of wheat, a crop supplying 20% of global calories, in a changing climate is critical for food security. Most projections, however, focus solely on how climate change affects yields in existing wheat-growing areas, failing to consider potential climate-driven shifts in wheat cultivation. This omission creates a key knowledge gap in understanding future production. Here, we use machine learning and crop simulations to jointly project future wheat area and yield. We find that a 2°C warming could expand suitable planting areas by 15.0%, offsetting yield losses and potentially increasing global production of spring and winter wheat by 29.0% and 12.5%, respectively. Our results show that accounting for dynamic cropland shifts is essential for accurate production projections and food security assessments. These insights inform more realistic climate adaptation and land-use planning policies.