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Journal Article

Solving science conundrums in the climate-nature-equity polycrisis with integrated transformative scenarios

Authors

Pereira,  Laura M.
External Organizations;

Gibson,  Matthew Ford
External Organizations;

Abrams,  Jesse F.
External Organizations;

Brutschin,  Elina
External Organizations;

Cardenas,  Juan Camilo
External Organizations;

Cheung,  William W.L.
External Organizations;

Claudet,  Joachim
External Organizations;

Cornell,  Sarah E.
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Daioglou,  Vassilis
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Durán,  América Paz
External Organizations;

Gomez-Baggethun,  Erik
External Organizations;

Harrison,  Paula A.
External Organizations;

Hebden,  Sophie
External Organizations;

Johnson,  Justin A.
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Jouffray,  Jean-Baptiste
External Organizations;

Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen,  Sylvia
External Organizations;

Keys,  Patrick W.
External Organizations;

Kim,  HyeJin
External Organizations;

Kok,  Marcel T.J.
External Organizations;

Lundquist,  Carolyn J.
External Organizations;

Lenton,  Timothy M.
External Organizations;

Mason-D’Croz,  Daniel
External Organizations;

McElwee,  Pamela
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Munera-Roldan,  Claudia
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Nakicenovic,  Nebojsa
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Norström,  Albert V.
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Nyasulu,  Maganizo K.
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Peterson,  Garry D.
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Pinho,  Patricia
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/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Riahi,  Keywan
External Organizations;

Sumaila,  U. Rashid
External Organizations;

Tobian,  Arne
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Ricarda.Winkelmann

Winkelmann,  Ricarda       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Nico.Wunderling

Wunderling,  Nico       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

van Vuuren,  Detlef
External Organizations;

Vervoort,  Joost
External Organizations;

Zimm,  Caroline
External Organizations;

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Fulltext (public)

1-s2.0-S2590332226001119-main.pdf
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Citation

Pereira, L. M., Gibson, M. F., Abrams, J. F., Brutschin, E., Cardenas, J. C., Cheung, W. W., Claudet, J., Cornell, S. E., Daioglou, V., Durán, A. P., Gomez-Baggethun, E., Harrison, P. A., Hebden, S., Johnson, J. A., Jouffray, J.-B., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Keys, P. W., Kim, H., Kok, M. T., Lundquist, C. J., Lenton, T. M., Mason-D’Croz, D., McElwee, P., Munera-Roldan, C., Nakicenovic, N., Norström, A. V., Nyasulu, M. K., Peterson, G. D., Pinho, P., Popp, A., Riahi, K., Sumaila, U. R., Tobian, A., Winkelmann, R., Wunderling, N., van Vuuren, D., Vervoort, J., Zimm, C. (2026): Solving science conundrums in the climate-nature-equity polycrisis with integrated transformative scenarios. - One Earth, 9, 5, 101710.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101710


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34428
Abstract
Addressing the intertwined climate, biodiversity, and equity crises requires transformative societal change. Yet the scenario frameworks and models used to explore future pathways often reproduce existing institutions, governance systems, and social structures, limiting their ability to imagine more sustainable and just futures. A key gap is the lack of approaches that can identify and evaluate transformative actions while accounting for systemic inequities in implementation. Here, we argue that integrating climate and biodiversity knowledge across the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities, together with stakeholders and diverse knowledge holders, can support the development of normative scenarios and models for just and sustainable Earth system futures. We outline a research agenda, highlight emerging examples of this shift, and identify the coalitions and institutional changes needed to advance it. More inclusive scenarios and modeling tools are essential for foregrounding equitable solution pathways and informing decisions about collective futures.