Solving science conundrums in the climate-nature-equity polycrisis with 
integrated transformative scenarios

Pereira, Laura M.; Gibson, Matthew Ford; Abrams, Jesse F.; Brutschin, Elina; Cardenas, Juan Camilo; Cheung, William W.L.; Claudet, Joachim; Cornell, Sarah E.; Daioglou, Vassilis; Durán, América Paz; Gomez-Baggethun, Erik; Harrison, Paula A.; Hebden, Sophie; Johnson, Justin A.; Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia; Keys, Patrick W.; Kim, HyeJin; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; McElwee, Pamela; Munera-Roldan, Claudia; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Norström, Albert V.; Nyasulu, Maganizo Kruger; Peterson, Garry D.; Pinho, Patricia; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Tobian, Arne; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Wunderling, Nico; van Vuuren, Detlef; Vervoort, Joost; Zimm, Caroline

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101710

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Solving science conundrums in the climate-nature-equity polycrisis with integrated transformative scenarios

Urheber*innen

Pereira, Laura M.
External Organizations;

Gibson, Matthew Ford
External Organizations;

Abrams, Jesse F.
External Organizations;

Brutschin, Elina
External Organizations;

Cardenas, Juan Camilo
External Organizations;

Cheung, William W.L.
External Organizations;

Claudet, Joachim
External Organizations;

Cornell, Sarah E.
External Organizations;

Daioglou, Vassilis
External Organizations;

Durán, América Paz
External Organizations;

Gomez-Baggethun, Erik
External Organizations;

Harrison, Paula A.
External Organizations;

Hebden, Sophie
External Organizations;

Johnson, Justin A.
External Organizations;

Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste
External Organizations;

Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia
External Organizations;

Keys, Patrick W.
External Organizations;

Kim, HyeJin
External Organizations;

Kok, Marcel T.J.
External Organizations;

Lundquist, Carolyn J.
External Organizations;

Lenton, Timothy M.
External Organizations;

Mason-D’Croz, Daniel
External Organizations;

McElwee, Pamela
External Organizations;

Munera-Roldan, Claudia
External Organizations;

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa
External Organizations;

Norström, Albert V.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/maganizokruger.nyasulu

Nyasulu, Maganizo Kruger
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Peterson, Garry D.
External Organizations;

Pinho, Patricia
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Riahi, Keywan
External Organizations;

Sumaila, U. Rashid
External Organizations;

Tobian, Arne
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Ricarda.Winkelmann

Winkelmann, Ricarda
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Nico.Wunderling

Wunderling, Nico
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

van Vuuren, Detlef
External Organizations;

Vervoort, Joost
External Organizations;

Zimm, Caroline
External Organizations;

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Zitation

Pereira, L. M., Gibson, M. F., Abrams, J. F., Brutschin, E., Cardenas, J. C., Cheung, W. W., Claudet, J., Cornell, S. E., Daioglou, V., Durán, A. P., Gomez-Baggethun, E., Harrison, P. A., Hebden, S., Johnson, J. A., Jouffray, J.-B., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Keys, P. W., Kim, H., Kok, M. T., Lundquist, C. J., Lenton, T. M., Mason-D’Croz, D., McElwee, P., Munera-Roldan, C., Nakicenovic, N., Norström, A. V., Nyasulu, M. K., Peterson, G. D., Pinho, P., Popp, A., Riahi, K., Sumaila, U. R., Tobian, A., Winkelmann, R., Wunderling, N., van Vuuren, D., Vervoort, J., Zimm, C. (2026): Solving science conundrums in the climate-nature-equity polycrisis with integrated transformative scenarios. - One Earth, 9, 5, 101710.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101710

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34428

Zusammenfassung

Addressing the intertwined climate, biodiversity, and equity crises requires transformative societal change. Yet the scenario frameworks and models used to explore future pathways often reproduce existing institutions, governance systems, and social structures, limiting their ability to imagine more sustainable and just futures. A key gap is the lack of approaches that can identify and evaluate transformative actions while accounting for systemic inequities in implementation. Here, we argue that integrating climate and biodiversity knowledge across the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities, together with stakeholders and diverse knowledge holders, can support the development of normative scenarios and models for just and sustainable Earth system futures. We outline a research agenda, highlight emerging examples of this shift, and identify the coalitions and institutional changes needed to advance it. More inclusive scenarios and modeling tools are essential for foregrounding equitable solution pathways and informing decisions about collective futures.