Item

Abstract

The impacts of climate change are already evident in Bolivia, posing significant challenges to water and land management. This study is an attempt to provide science informed decision support within the Water-Energy-Food Nexus by firstly quantifying potential climate change impacts on water resources, crop yields, and hydropower generation in two regions of Bolivia—the Upper Amazon and Upper Río de la Plata. In a second step, the simulated impacts define boundary conditions within which a suite of regionally developed adaptation measures was evaluated in collaboration with local stakeholders. The effectiveness of these measures under future climate scenarios was then assessed. The climate projections indicate spatially heterogeneous changes: while the windward slopes of the Andes facing the Amazon basin are projected to receive more rainfall, the Amazon lowlands and the Altiplano are likely to experience a decline. Consequently, water availability and crop yields are expected to decrease in the lowlands, while headwater regions may experience no change or even an increase. The possible decrease of river flow in the Upper Amazon is 25 % under moderate climate change and 40 % under high end climate change conditions by the end of the century, while there is a possible slight increase of river flow in the Upper Río de la Plata under moderate and a stronger one under high end climate change with a range of 0-40 %. Nevertheless, both basins are projected to face more frequent extreme events, particularly prolonged droughts. The findings further show that adaptive management within the Water–Energy–Food (WEF) Nexus can partially offset increased flow variability. However, such management must carefully balance competing demands for irrigation, electricity generation, and flood protection. The results also underscore the importance of global climate mitigation,as the severity of local impacts is considerably reduced under moderate warming scenarios.