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Abstract

Background: The effectiveness of climate policies in the energy sector depends on contextual factors specific to the implementing region. Understanding which contextual factors co-occur with policies supporting the energy sector transition towards climate neutrality is central to determining promising policy interventions in regions with similar characteristics.

Methods: We conduct a machine learning-assisted systematic literature review to answer the following question: which combinations of effective policy interventions and contextual factors are identified in the empirical literature as contributing to the deployment of mitigation technologies or transitioning away from fossil fuels? These combinations of contextual factors and effective policy interventions are distinct opportunities for change, and thus entry points for a transition to climate neutrality. Our review exclusively covers studies that conduct an ex-post evaluation of climate policies in the energy sector and are published after the decision on the Paris Agreement in 2015.

Results: We find that the three enabling contextual factors most frequently cited by the literature are institutional capacity (institutional feasibility), interest group support (social feasibility), and market structure (economic feasibility). Overall, the majority of enabling contextual factors identified in the literature relate to ‘economic feasibility’. Further, we identify distinct regional groups that share similar entry points supporting the transition in the energy sector. Our findings offer actionable guidance for policy makers seeking feasible energy transition pathways in their national context.