The development of climate scenarios

Werner, P.; Gerstengarbe, F.

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The development of climate scenarios

Authors

Werner, P.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Cooperation Partners;

Gerstengarbe, F.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Cooperation Partners;

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https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/output/publications/pikreports
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Werner, P., Gerstengarbe, F. (1997): The development of climate scenarios, (PIK Report ; 25), Potsdam : Potsdam-Institute für Klimafolgenforschung.

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_11008

Abstract

A new method for producing regional climate scenarios is presented.The basic idea is to describe future climate developments by using statistical methods in a special way. The starting point for this procedure is the coupling of one selected forecast of a climate model with any number of long-term, observed data series for the investigation area. This leads to a scenario-like description of the future climate. The quality of the method is proved by a verification example. Subsequently, the method is used to calculate a scenario for the Brandenburg region between 1996 and 2050.