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Abstract

The aim of this diploma thesis is twofold: Firstly to show for a given subcatchment how the risk “flood” could possibly alter under climate change. Secondly it will be analysed how potentially affected persons individually perceive this change of risk. To accomplish this aim the thesis is based on an interdisciplinary approach which combines methods of the natural- and social sciences. The methods of the natural sciences are mainly based on hydrological techniques and the application of climate change szenarios while the methods of the social sciences deal with perception- and speculation horizons of individual persons. Within this context different definitions of the term “risk” will be discussed. Further it will be pointed out that the term risk can be understood as a result of different, respectively process related, correlations.
The first part includes calculations on the possible future development of floodrisk in a subcatchment of the river Neckar in southwest Germany. These analyses will be based on applications of the hydrological model HBV-D and the integration of statistically downscaled and therefore regionalized climate change scenarios.
The second part deals with the perceptions of selected stakeholders, who were confronted with the results from the hydrological studies. These analyses will primarily be based on statsitical evaluations of interviews in the surrounding area of the city of Pforzheim, involving housholds, decision-makers and also pupils from two local grammar schools.