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要旨

The objective of this paper is to assess how much carbon (C) is currently stored in a forest district in Thuringia, Germany, and how the carbon stocks will develop up to the year 2099 with a changing climate and under various management regimes (including no management), with different assumptions about carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects. We applied the process-based model 4C and a wood product model to a forest district in Germany and evaluated both models for the period from 2002 to 2010, based on forest inventory data for the stands in the district. Then, we simulated the growth of the stands in the forest district under three different realizations of a climate change scenario, combined with different management regimes. Our simulations show that in 2099, between 630 and 1149 t C ha−1 will be stored in this district. The simulations also showed that climate change affects carbon sequestration. The no management strategy sequestered the highest amount of carbon (8.7 t C ha−1 year−1), which was greater than the management regimes. In the model, the possible fertilization effect of CO2 is an important factor. However, forest management remains the determining factor in this forest district.