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Journal Article

Potentials and limits to basin stability estimation

Authors
/persons/resource/Paul.Schultz

Schultz,  Paul
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/peter.menck

Menck,  Peter J.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/heitzig

Heitzig,  Jobst
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths,  Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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7598oa.pdf
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Citation

Schultz, P., Menck, P. J., Heitzig, J., Kurths, J. (2017): Potentials and limits to basin stability estimation. - New Journal of Physics, 19, 23005.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/aa5a7b


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21632
Abstract
Stability assessment methods for dynamical systems have recently been complemented by basin stability and derived measures, i.e. probabilistic statements whether systems remain in a basin of attraction given a distribution of perturbations. Their application requires numerical estimation via Monte Carlo sampling and integration of differential equations. Here, we analyse the applicability of basin stability to systems with basin geometries that are challenging for this numerical method, having fractal basin boundaries and riddled or intermingled basins of attraction. We find that numerical basin stability estimation is still meaningful for fractal boundaries but reaches its limits for riddled basins with holes.