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Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

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/persons/resource/michaja.pehl

Pehl,  Michaja       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Arvesen,  A.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder,  Florian       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Hertwich,  E.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Pehl, M., Arvesen, A., Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Hertwich, E., Luderer, G. (2017): Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling. - Nature Energy, 2, 12, 939-945.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-017-0032-9


???ViewItemOverview_lblCiteAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21858
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Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy–economy–land-use–climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78–110 gCO2eq kWh−1, compared with 3.5–12 gCO2eq kWh−1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (∼100 gCO2eq kWh−1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.