Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European 
river basins

Lobanova, Anastasia; Liersch, Stefan; Nunes, J. P.; Didovets, Iulii; Stagl, Judith C.; Huang, S.; Koch, Hagen; Rivas López, María del Rocío; Fox Maule, C.; Hattermann, Fred Fokko; Krysanova, Valentina

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.05.003

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Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins

Authors

/persons/resource/anastasia.lobanova

Lobanova, Anastasia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Stefan.Liersch

Liersch, Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Nunes, J. P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/didovets

Didovets, Iulii
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/judith.stagl

Stagl, Judith C.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Huang, S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Hagen.Koch

Koch, Hagen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/rivas

Rivas López, María del Rocío
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Fox Maule, C.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Fred.Hattermann

Hattermann, Fred Fokko
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Valentina.Krysanova

Krysanova, Valentina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Citation

Lobanova, A., Liersch, S., Nunes, J. P., Didovets, I., Stagl, J. C., Huang, S., Koch, H., Rivas López, M. d. R., Fox Maule, C., Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V. (2018): Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins. - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 18, 15-30.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.05.003

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22527

Abstract

Study region: To provide a picture of hydrological impact of climate change across different climatic zones in Europe, this study considers eight river basins: Tagus in Iberian Peninsula; Emån and Lule in Scandinavia; Rhine, Danube and Teteriv in Central and Eastern Europe; Tay on the island of Great Britain and Northern Dvina in North-Eastern Europe. Study focus: In this study the assessment of the impacts of moderate and high-end climate change scenarios on the hydrological patterns in European basins was conducted. To assess the projected changes, the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was set up, calibrated and validated for the basins. The SWIM was driven by the bias-corrected climate projections obtained from the coupled simulations of the Global Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show robust decreasing trends in water availability in the most southern river basin (Tagus), an overall increase in discharge in the most northern river basin (Lule), increase in the winter discharge and shift in seasonality in Northern and Central European catchments. The impacts of the high-end climate change scenario RCP 8.5 continue to develop until the end of the century, while those of the moderate climate change scenario RCP 4.5 level-off after the mid-century. The results of this study also confirm trends, found previously with mostly global scale models.