Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Rogelj, J.; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, K. V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, J.; Gernaat, D.; Fujimori, S.; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, T.; Marangoni, G.; Krey, V.; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, K.; Vuuren, D. P. van; Doelman, J.; Drouet, L.; Edmonds, J.; Fricko, O.; Harmsen, M.; Havlík, P.; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, E.; Tavoni, M.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3

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Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

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Rogelj, J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Calvin, K. V.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Emmerling, J.
External Organizations;

Gernaat, D.
External Organizations;

Fujimori, S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Jessica.Strefler

Strefler, Jessica
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Hasegawa, T.
External Organizations;

Marangoni, G.
External Organizations;

Krey, V.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Riahi, K.
External Organizations;

Vuuren, D. P. van
External Organizations;

Doelman, J.
External Organizations;

Drouet, L.
External Organizations;

Edmonds, J.
External Organizations;

Fricko, O.
External Organizations;

Harmsen, M.
External Organizations;

Havlík, P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Stehfest, E.
External Organizations;

Tavoni, M.
External Organizations;

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Rogelj, J., Popp, A., Calvin, K. V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S., Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Vuuren, D. P. v., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Havlík, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Tavoni, M. (2018): Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. - Nature Climate Change, 8, 4, 325-332.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22772

Zusammenfassung

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.