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Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

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Rogelj,  J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Calvin,  K. V.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Emmerling,  J.
External Organizations;

Gernaat,  D.
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Jessica.Strefler

Strefler,  Jessica
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Hasegawa,  T.
External Organizations;

Marangoni,  G.
External Organizations;

Krey,  V.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler,  Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Riahi,  K.
External Organizations;

Vuuren,  D. P. van
External Organizations;

Doelman,  J.
External Organizations;

Drouet,  L.
External Organizations;

Edmonds,  J.
External Organizations;

Fricko,  O.
External Organizations;

Harmsen,  M.
External Organizations;

Havlík,  P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder,  Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Stehfest,  E.
External Organizations;

Tavoni,  M.
External Organizations;

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Rogelj, J., Popp, A., Calvin, K. V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S., Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Vuuren, D. P. v., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Havlík, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Tavoni, M. (2018): Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. - Nature Climate Change, 8, 4, 325-332.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3


???ViewItemOverview_lblCiteAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22772
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The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.