Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Rogelj, J.; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, K. V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, J.; Gernaat, D.; Fujimori, S.; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, T.; Marangoni, G.; Krey, V.; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, K.; Vuuren, D. P. van; Doelman, J.; Drouet, L.; Edmonds, J.; Fricko, O.; Harmsen, M.; Havlík, P.; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, E.; Tavoni, M.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT

Add to Basket

Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released

Journal Article

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Authors

Rogelj, J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Calvin, K. V.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Emmerling, J.
External Organizations;

Gernaat, D.
External Organizations;

Fujimori, S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Jessica.Strefler

Strefler, Jessica
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Hasegawa, T.
External Organizations;

Marangoni, G.
External Organizations;

Krey, V.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Riahi, K.
External Organizations;

Vuuren, D. P. van
External Organizations;

Doelman, J.
External Organizations;

Drouet, L.
External Organizations;

Edmonds, J.
External Organizations;

Fricko, O.
External Organizations;

Harmsen, M.
External Organizations;

Havlík, P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Stehfest, E.
External Organizations;

Tavoni, M.
External Organizations;

External Ressource

No external resources are shared

Fulltext (public)

There are no public fulltexts stored in PIKpublic

Supplementary Material (public)

There is no public supplementary material available

Citation

Rogelj, J., Popp, A., Calvin, K. V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S., Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Vuuren, D. P. v., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Havlík, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Tavoni, M. (2018): Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. - Nature Climate Change, 8, 4, 325-332.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22772

Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.