A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

Rogelj, J.; Huppmann, D.; Krey, V.; Riahi, K.; Clarke, L.; Gidden, M.; Nicholls, Z.; Meinshausen, Malte

doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4

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A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

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Rogelj, J.
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Huppmann, D.
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Krey, V.
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Riahi, K.
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Clarke, L.
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Gidden, M.
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Nicholls, Z.
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Meinshausen, Malte
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Rogelj, J., Huppmann, D., Krey, V., Riahi, K., Clarke, L., Gidden, M., Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M. (2019): A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal. - Nature, 573, 7774, 357-363.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23779

Abstract

To understand how global warming can be kept well below 2 degrees Celsius and even 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. However, current scenarios have a key weakness: they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100. This choice may encourage risky pathways that delay action, reach higher-than-acceptable mid-century warming, and rely on net removal of carbon dioxide thereafter to undo their initial shortfall in reductions of emissions. Here we draw on insights from physical science to propose a scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a specific maximum level with either temperature stabilization or reversal thereafter. The ambition of climate action until carbon neutrality determines peak warming, and can be followed by a variety of long-term states with different sustainability implications. The approach proposed here closely mirrors the intentions of the United Nations Paris Agreement, and makes questions of intergenerational equity into explicit design choices.