Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the 
Paris Agreement

Roelfsema, Mark; van Soest, Heleen L.; Harmsen, Mathijs; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bertram, Christoph; den Elzen, Michel; Höhne, Niklas; Iacobuta, Gabriela; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Ueckerdt, Falko; Després, Jacques; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Frank, Stefan; Fricko, Oliver; Gidden, Matthew; Humpenöder, Florian; Huppmann, Daniel; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Fragkiadakis, Kostas; Gi, Keii; Keramidas, Kimon; Köberle, Alexandre C.; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Rochedo, Pedro; Schaeffer, Roberto; Oshiro, Ken; Vrontisi, Zoi; Chen, Wenying; Iyer, Gokul C.; Edmonds, Jae; Kannavou, Maria; Jiang, Kejun; Mathur, Ritu; Safonov, George; Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6

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Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Authors

Roelfsema, Mark
External Organizations;

van Soest, Heleen L.
External Organizations;

Harmsen, Mathijs
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

den Elzen, Michel
External Organizations;

Höhne, Niklas
External Organizations;

Iacobuta, Gabriela
External Organizations;

Krey, Volker
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Riahi, Keywan
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Falko.Ueckerdt

Ueckerdt, Falko
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Després, Jacques
External Organizations;

Drouet, Laurent
External Organizations;

Emmerling, Johannes
External Organizations;

Frank, Stefan
External Organizations;

Fricko, Oliver
External Organizations;

Gidden, Matthew
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Huppmann, Daniel
External Organizations;

Fujimori, Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Fragkiadakis, Kostas
External Organizations;

Gi, Keii
External Organizations;

Keramidas, Kimon
External Organizations;

Köberle, Alexandre C.
External Organizations;

Aleluia Reis, Lara
External Organizations;

Rochedo, Pedro
External Organizations;

Schaeffer, Roberto
External Organizations;

Oshiro, Ken
External Organizations;

Vrontisi, Zoi
External Organizations;

Chen, Wenying
External Organizations;

Iyer, Gokul C.
External Organizations;

Edmonds, Jae
External Organizations;

Kannavou, Maria
External Organizations;

Jiang, Kejun
External Organizations;

Mathur, Ritu
External Organizations;

Safonov, George
External Organizations;

Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma
External Organizations;

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Citation

Roelfsema, M., van Soest, H. L., Harmsen, M., van Vuuren, D. P., Bertram, C., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Iacobuta, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Ueckerdt, F., Després, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Gidden, M., Humpenöder, F., Huppmann, D., Fujimori, S., Fragkiadakis, K., Gi, K., Keramidas, K., Köberle, A. C., Aleluia Reis, L., Rochedo, P., Schaeffer, R., Oshiro, K., Vrontisi, Z., Chen, W., Iyer, G. C., Edmonds, J., Kannavou, M., Jiang, K., Mathur, R., Safonov, G., Vishwanathan, S. S. (2020): Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement. - Nature Communications, 11, 2096.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24109

Abstract

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.