Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event 
categories and three spatial scales

Lange, Stefan; Volkholz, Jan; Geiger, Tobias; Zhao, Fang; Vega, Iliusi; Veldkamp, Ted; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Warszawski, Lila; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Schewe, Jacob; Bresch, David N.; Büchner, Matthias; Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Dury, Mary; Emanuel, Kerry; Folberth, Christian; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N.; Grillakis, Manolis; Hanasaki, Naota; Henrot, Alexandra‐Jane; Hickler, Thomas; Honda, Yasushi; Ito, Akihiko; Khabarov, Nikolay; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Liu, Wenfeng; Müller, Christoph; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Mueller Schmied, Hannes; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Stacke, Tobias; Steinkamp, Jörg; Thiery, Wim; Wada, Yoshihide; Willner, Sven; Yang, Hong; Yoshikawa, Minoru; Yue, Chao; Frieler, Katja

doi:10.1029/2020EF001616

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Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales

Urheber*innen

/persons/resource/slange

Lange, Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jan.Volkholz

Volkholz, Jan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/geiger

Geiger, Tobias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Zhao, Fang
External Organizations;

Vega, Iliusi
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Veldkamp, Ted
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/lila.warszawski

Warszawski, Lila
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Huber, Veronika
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr, Jonas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe, Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bresch, David N.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Matthias.Buechner

Büchner, Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Chang, Jinfeng
External Organizations;

Ciais, Philippe
External Organizations;

Dury, Mary
External Organizations;

Emanuel, Kerry
External Organizations;

Folberth, Christian
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Dieter.Gerten

Gerten, Dieter
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Gosling, Simon N.
External Organizations;

Grillakis, Manolis
External Organizations;

Hanasaki, Naota
External Organizations;

Henrot, Alexandra‐Jane
External Organizations;

Hickler, Thomas
External Organizations;

Honda, Yasushi
External Organizations;

Ito, Akihiko
External Organizations;

Khabarov, Nikolay
External Organizations;

Koutroulis, Aristeidis
External Organizations;

Liu, Wenfeng
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Nishina, Kazuya
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sebastian.ostberg

Ostberg, Sebastian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mueller Schmied, Hannes
External Organizations;

Seneviratne, Sonia I.
External Organizations;

Stacke, Tobias
External Organizations;

Steinkamp, Jörg
External Organizations;

Thiery, Wim
External Organizations;

Wada, Yoshihide
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sven.willner

Willner, Sven
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Yang, Hong
External Organizations;

Yoshikawa, Minoru
External Organizations;

Yue, Chao
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler, Katja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Zitation

Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T., Reyer, C. P. O., Warszawski, L., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Schewe, J., Bresch, D. N., Büchner, M., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., Emanuel, K., Folberth, C., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Henrot, A., Hickler, T., Honda, Y., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Koutroulis, A., Liu, W., Müller, C., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Mueller Schmied, H., Seneviratne, S. I., Stacke, T., Steinkamp, J., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Willner, S., Yang, H., Yoshikawa, M., Yue, C., Frieler, K. (2020): Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales. - Earth's Future, 8, 12, e2020EF001616.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001616

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24730

Zusammenfassung

The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than fivefold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.