Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of 
climate and crop models

Jägermeyr, Jonas; Müller, Christoph; Ruane, Alex C.; Elliott, Joshua; Balkovic, Juraj; Castillo, Oscar; Faye, Babacar; Foster, Ian; Folberth, Christian; Franke, James A.; Fuchs, Kathrin; Guarin, Jose R.; Heinke, Jens; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Iizumi, Toshichika; Jain, Atul K.; Kelly, David; Khabarov, Nikolay; Lange, Stefan; Lin, Tzu-Shun; Liu, Wenfeng; Mialyk, Oleksandr; Minoli, Sara; Moyer, Elizabeth J.; Okada, Masashi; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Rabin, Sam S.; Scheer, Clemens; Schneider, Julia M.; Schyns, Joep F.; Skalsky, Rastislav; Smerald, Andrew; Stella, Tommaso; Stephens, Haynes; Webber, Heidi; Zabel, Florian; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y

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Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Authors

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr, Jonas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Ruane, Alex C.
External Organizations;

Elliott, Joshua
External Organizations;

Balkovic, Juraj
External Organizations;

Castillo, Oscar
External Organizations;

Faye, Babacar
External Organizations;

Foster, Ian
External Organizations;

Folberth, Christian
External Organizations;

Franke, James A.
External Organizations;

Fuchs, Kathrin
External Organizations;

Guarin, Jose R.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Jens.Heinke

Heinke, Jens
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Hoogenboom, Gerrit
External Organizations;

Iizumi, Toshichika
External Organizations;

Jain, Atul K.
External Organizations;

Kelly, David
External Organizations;

Khabarov, Nikolay
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/slange

Lange, Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lin, Tzu-Shun
External Organizations;

Liu, Wenfeng
External Organizations;

Mialyk, Oleksandr
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sara.minoli

Minoli, Sara
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Moyer, Elizabeth J.
External Organizations;

Okada, Masashi
External Organizations;

Phillips, Meridel
External Organizations;

Porter, Cheryl
External Organizations;

Rabin, Sam S.
External Organizations;

Scheer, Clemens
External Organizations;

Schneider, Julia M.
External Organizations;

Schyns, Joep F.
External Organizations;

Skalsky, Rastislav
External Organizations;

Smerald, Andrew
External Organizations;

Stella, Tommaso
External Organizations;

Stephens, Haynes
External Organizations;

Webber, Heidi
External Organizations;

Zabel, Florian
External Organizations;

Rosenzweig, Cynthia
External Organizations;

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No external resources are shared

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Citation

Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Ruane, A. C., Elliott, J., Balkovic, J., Castillo, O., Faye, B., Foster, I., Folberth, C., Franke, J. A., Fuchs, K., Guarin, J. R., Heinke, J., Hoogenboom, G., Iizumi, T., Jain, A. K., Kelly, D., Khabarov, N., Lange, S., Lin, T.-S., Liu, W., Mialyk, O., Minoli, S., Moyer, E. J., Okada, M., Phillips, M., Porter, C., Rabin, S. S., Scheer, C., Schneider, J. M., Schyns, J. F., Skalsky, R., Smerald, A., Stella, T., Stephens, H., Webber, H., Zabel, F., Rosenzweig, C. (2021): Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models. - Nature Food, 2, 11, 873-885.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25965

Abstract

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.