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Journal Article

Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding

Authors
/persons/resource/dicapua

Di Capua,  Giorgia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Sparrow,  S.
External Organizations;

Kornhuber,  Kai
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/rousi

Rousi,  Eftychia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Osprey,  S.
External Organizations;

Wallom,  D.
External Organizations;

van den Hurk,  B.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/coumou

Coumou,  Dim
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

26063oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 6MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Di Capua, G., Sparrow, S., Kornhuber, K., Rousi, E., Osprey, S., Wallom, D., van den Hurk, B., Coumou, D. (2021): Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding. - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4, 55.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00211-9


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26063
Abstract
Summer 2010 saw two simultaneous extremes linked by an atmospheric wave train: a record-breaking heatwave in Russia and severe floods in Pakistan. Here, we study this wave event using a large ensemble climate model experiment. First, we show that the circulation in 2010 reflected a recurrent wave train connecting the heatwave and flooding events. Second, we show that the occurrence of the wave train is favored by three drivers: (1) 2010 sea surface temperature anomalies increase the probability of this wave train by a factor 2-to-4 relative to the model’s climatology, (2) early-summer soil moisture deficit in Russia not only increases the probability of local heatwaves, but also enhances rainfall extremes over Pakistan by forcing an atmospheric wave response, and (3) high-latitude land warming favors wave-train occurrence and therefore rainfall and heat extremes. These findings highlight the complexity and synergistic interactions between different drivers, reconciling some seemingly contradictory results from previous studies.