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Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions

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Hasegawa,  Tomoko
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Frank,  Stefan
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder,  Florian       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram,  Christoph       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Després,  Jacques
External Organizations;

Drouet,  Laurent
External Organizations;

Emmerling,  Johannes
External Organizations;

Gusti,  Mykola
External Organizations;

Harmsen,  Mathijs
External Organizations;

Keramidas,  Kimon
External Organizations;

Ochi,  Yuki
External Organizations;

Oshiro,  Ken
External Organizations;

Rochedo,  Pedro
External Organizations;

van Ruijven,  Bas
External Organizations;

Cabardos,  Anique-Marie
External Organizations;

Deppermann,  Andre
External Organizations;

Fosse,  Florian
External Organizations;

Havlik,  Petr
External Organizations;

Krey,  Volker
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schaeffer,  Roberto
External Organizations;

van Vuuren,  Detlef
External Organizations;

Riahi,  Keywan
External Organizations;

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Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Frank, S., Humpenöder, F., Bertram, C., Després, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Gusti, M., Harmsen, M., Keramidas, K., Ochi, Y., Oshiro, K., Rochedo, P., van Ruijven, B., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Fosse, F., Havlik, P., Krey, V., Popp, A., Schaeffer, R., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K. (2021): Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions. - Nature Sustainability, 4, 12, 1052-1059.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w


???ViewItemOverview_lblCiteAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26174
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Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.