Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Riahi, Keywan; Bertram, Christoph; Huppmann, Daniel; Rogelj, Joeri; Bosetti, Valentina; Cabardos, Anique-Marie; Deppermann, Andre; Drouet, Laurent; Frank, Stefan; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Paroussos, Leonidas; Schaeffer, Roberto; Weitzel, Matthias; van der Zwaan, Bob; Vrontisi, Zoi; Dalla Longa, Francesco; Després, Jacques; Fosse, Florian; Fragkiadakis, Kostas; Gusti, Mykola; Humpenöder, Florian; Keramidas, Kimon; Kishimoto, Paul; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte; Nogueira, Larissa P.; Oshiro, Ken; Popp, Alexander; Rochedo, Pedro R. R.; Ünlü, Gamze; van Ruijven, Bas; Takakura, Junya; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef; Zakeri, Behnam

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2

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Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

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Riahi, Keywan
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Huppmann, Daniel
External Organizations;

Rogelj, Joeri
External Organizations;

Bosetti, Valentina
External Organizations;

Cabardos, Anique-Marie
External Organizations;

Deppermann, Andre
External Organizations;

Drouet, Laurent
External Organizations;

Frank, Stefan
External Organizations;

Fricko, Oliver
External Organizations;

Fujimori, Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Harmsen, Mathijs
External Organizations;

Hasegawa, Tomoko
External Organizations;

Krey, Volker
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Paroussos, Leonidas
External Organizations;

Schaeffer, Roberto
External Organizations;

Weitzel, Matthias
External Organizations;

van der Zwaan, Bob
External Organizations;

Vrontisi, Zoi
External Organizations;

Dalla Longa, Francesco
External Organizations;

Després, Jacques
External Organizations;

Fosse, Florian
External Organizations;

Fragkiadakis, Kostas
External Organizations;

Gusti, Mykola
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Keramidas, Kimon
External Organizations;

Kishimoto, Paul
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/meinshausen

Meinshausen, Malte
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Nogueira, Larissa P.
External Organizations;

Oshiro, Ken
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rochedo, Pedro R. R.
External Organizations;

Ünlü, Gamze
External Organizations;

van Ruijven, Bas
External Organizations;

Takakura, Junya
External Organizations;

Tavoni, Massimo
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef
External Organizations;

Zakeri, Behnam
External Organizations;

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Zitation

Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Huppmann, D., Rogelj, J., Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Drouet, L., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Paroussos, L., Schaeffer, R., Weitzel, M., van der Zwaan, B., Vrontisi, Z., Dalla Longa, F., Després, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Gusti, M., Humpenöder, F., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P., Kriegler, E., Meinshausen, M., Nogueira, L. P., Oshiro, K., Popp, A., Rochedo, P. R. R., Ünlü, G., van Ruijven, B., Takakura, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D., Zakeri, B. (2021): Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot. - Nature Climate Change, 11, 12, 1063-1069.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26341

Zusammenfassung

Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.