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学術論文

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Authors

van Soest,  Heleen L.
External Organizations;

Aleluia Reis,  Lara
External Organizations;

Baptista,  Luiz Bernardo
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Després,  Jacques
External Organizations;

Drouet,  Laurent
External Organizations;

den Elzen,  Michel
External Organizations;

Fragkos,  Panagiotis
External Organizations;

Fricko,  Oliver
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Grant,  Neil
External Organizations;

Harmsen,  Mathijs
External Organizations;

Iyer,  Gokul
External Organizations;

Keramidas,  Kimon
External Organizations;

Köberle,  Alexandre C.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler,  Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Aman.Malik

Malik,  Aman
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mittal,  Shivika
External Organizations;

Oshiro,  Ken
External Organizations;

Riahi,  Keywan
External Organizations;

Roelfsema,  Mark
External Organizations;

van Ruijven,  Bas
External Organizations;

Schaeffer,  Roberto
External Organizations;

Silva Herran,  Diego
External Organizations;

Tavoni,  Massimo
External Organizations;

Unlu,  Gamze
External Organizations;

Vandyck,  Toon
External Organizations;

van Vuuren,  Detlef P.
External Organizations;

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フルテキスト (公開)

s41467-021-26595-z.pdf
(出版社版), 3MB

付随資料 (公開)
There is no public supplementary material available
引用

van Soest, H. L., Aleluia Reis, L., Baptista, L. B., Bertram, C., Després, J., Drouet, L., den Elzen, M., Fragkos, P., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Grant, N., Harmsen, M., Iyer, G., Keramidas, K., Köberle, A. C., Kriegler, E., Malik, A., Mittal, S., Oshiro, K., Riahi, K., Roelfsema, M., van Ruijven, B., Schaeffer, R., Silva Herran, D., Tavoni, M., Unlu, G., Vandyck, T., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2021). Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap. Nature Communications, 12:. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z.


引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26708
要旨
Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.