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Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis

Urheber*innen

Rafaj,  Peter
External Organizations;

Kiesewetter,  Gregor
External Organizations;

Krey,  Volker
External Organizations;

Schoepp,  Wolfgang
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Drouet,  Laurent
External Organizations;

Fricko,  Oliver
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Harmsen,  Mathijs
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/hilaire

Hilaire,  Jérôme
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Huppmann,  Daniel
External Organizations;

Klimont,  Zbigniew
External Organizations;

Kolp,  Peter
External Organizations;

Aleluia Reis,  Lara
External Organizations;

van Vuuren,  Detlef
External Organizations;

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Zitation

Rafaj, P., Kiesewetter, G., Krey, V., Schoepp, W., Bertram, C., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Hilaire, J., Huppmann, D., Klimont, Z., Kolp, P., Aleluia Reis, L., van Vuuren, D. (2021): Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis. - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 4, 045005.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdf0b


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26745
Zusammenfassung
Low-carbon pathways consistent with the 2 °C and 1.5 °C long-term climate goals defined in the Paris Agreement are likely to induce substantial co-benefits for air pollution and associated health impacts. In this analysis, using five global integrated assessment models, we quantify the emission reductions in key air pollutants resulting from the decarbonization of energy systems and the resulting changes in premature mortality attributed to the exposure to ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter. The emission reductions differ by sectors. Sulfur emissions are mainly reduced from power plants and industry, cuts in nitrogen oxides are dominated by the transport sector, and the largest abatement of primary fine particles is achieved in the residential sector. The analysis also shows that health benefits are the largest when policies addressing climate change mitigation and stringent air pollution controls are coordinated. We decompose the key factors that determine the extent of health co-benefits, focusing on Asia: changes in emissions, urbanization rates, population growth and ageing. Demographic processes, particularly due to ageing population, counteract in many regions the mortality reductions realized through lower emissions.