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Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution reduction and food security

Authors
/persons/resource/xiaoxi.wang

Wang,  Xiaoxi
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Xu,  Meng
External Organizations;

Lin,  Bin
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky,  Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Xuan,  Jiaqi
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Jan.Dietrich

Dietrich,  Jan Philipp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/stevanovic

Stevanović,  Miodrag
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bai,  Zhaohai
External Organizations;

Ma,  Lin
External Organizations;

Jin,  Shuqin
External Organizations;

Fan,  Shenggen
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen,  Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

27123oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 900KB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Wang, X., Xu, M., Lin, B., Bodirsky, B. L., Xuan, J., Dietrich, J. P., Stevanović, M., Bai, Z., Ma, L., Jin, S., Fan, S., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A. (2023): Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution reduction and food security. - Sustainability Science, 18, 407-420.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01189-w


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27123
Abstract
Reactive nitrogen (N) is a requisite nutrient for agricultural production, but results in greenhouse gas and air and water pollution. The environmental and economic impacts of N fertilizer use in China are particularly relevant, as China consumes the largest amount of N fertilizer in the world to meet its soaring food demand. Here, we use an agro-economic land system model (MAgPIE) in combination with a difference-in-differences econometric model to provide a forward-looking assessment of China’s fertilizer policies in terms of removing fertilizer manufacturing subsidies and implementing measures to improve agricultural nutrient management efficiency. Our model results indicate that enhancing soil N uptake efficiency and manure recycled to soil alongside fertilizer subsidy removal can largely reduce N fertilizer use and N losses and abate N pollution in the short and long term, while food security remains largely unaffected. Enhancing soil N uptake efficiency appears to be decisive to achieving China’s national strategic target of zero growth in N fertilizer use. This study also finds that improving agricultural nutrient management efficiency contributes to higher land productivity and less cropland expansion, with substantial benefits for the environment and food security.