Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution 
reduction and food security

Wang, Xiaoxi; Xu, Meng; Lin, Bin; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Xuan, Jiaqi; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bai, Zhaohai; Ma, Lin; Jin, Shuqin; Fan, Shenggen; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

doi:10.1007/s11625-022-01189-w

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学術論文

Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution reduction and food security

Authors

/persons/resource/xiaoxi.wang

Wang, Xiaoxi
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Xu, Meng
External Organizations;

Lin, Bin
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Xuan, Jiaqi
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Jan.Dietrich

Dietrich, Jan Philipp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/stevanovic

Stevanović, Miodrag
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bai, Zhaohai
External Organizations;

Ma, Lin
External Organizations;

Jin, Shuqin
External Organizations;

Fan, Shenggen
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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27123oa.pdf
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引用

Wang, X., Xu, M., Lin, B., Bodirsky, B. L., Xuan, J., Dietrich, J. P., Stevanović, M., Bai, Z., Ma, L., Jin, S., Fan, S., Lotze-Campen, H., & Popp, A. (2023). Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution reduction and food security. Sustainability Science, 18, 407-420. doi:10.1007/s11625-022-01189-w.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27123

要旨

Reactive nitrogen (N) is a requisite nutrient for agricultural production, but results in greenhouse gas and air and water pollution. The environmental and economic impacts of N fertilizer use in China are particularly relevant, as China consumes the largest amount of N fertilizer in the world to meet its soaring food demand. Here, we use an agro-economic land system model (MAgPIE) in combination with a difference-in-differences econometric model to provide a forward-looking assessment of China’s fertilizer policies in terms of removing fertilizer manufacturing subsidies and implementing measures to improve agricultural nutrient management efficiency. Our model results indicate that enhancing soil N uptake efficiency and manure recycled to soil alongside fertilizer subsidy removal can largely reduce N fertilizer use and N losses and abate N pollution in the short and long term, while food security remains largely unaffected. Enhancing soil N uptake efficiency appears to be decisive to achieving China’s national strategic target of zero growth in N fertilizer use. This study also finds that improving agricultural nutrient management efficiency contributes to higher land productivity and less cropland expansion, with substantial benefits for the environment and food security.