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要旨

Uncertainties about the future extent of sea-level rise (SLR) and socio-economic development will determine the future value of coastal ecosystems. This study analyzes the joint impact of flooding due to SLR and socio-economic development on the future ecosystem services and values at the Atlantic coastal zone by 2100. To this end, this study uses a wide combination of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios to derive flood probability maps (using the Uncertainty Bathtub Model; uBTM) and local ecosystem service value (ESV) estimates (using value functions) to obtain future values of coastal ecosystem services (ES). Results show that the higher potential of ESV at risk is associated with RCP 8.5 and SSP5, i.e. the scenario associated with a narrative related to fossil-fueled development, which can generate future ESV losses ranging from 6% for Provisioning ES in Central America to 80% for Cultural ES in North America, when comparing 2100 versus 2015 values. Most affected ESV are the Cultural ES (more than 12% of their value at risk) in North America. Changes in ESV are exponentially related with flood risk and economic growth, such that small changes in flood or income lead to large changes in ESV. Unlike previous studies, the ESV functions used are dependent on time and local factors, such as population and income. Although population and income growth results in an increase in ESV, it also emphasizes the ecosystem service values at risk. Thus, sea-level rise and socio-economic changes impact ecosystem services and values – directly affecting the well-being of the world population. The unequal distribution of coastal ecosystem service loss across continents and countries highlighted in this work is important to identify what values are at risk and for whom. Adaptation measures and strategies can, in turn, be defined.