Precipitation extremes over the tropical Americas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 
climate change scenarios: Results from dynamical downscaling simulations

Costa, Alexandre Araújo; Guimarães, Sullyandro Oliveira; Sales, Domingo Cassain; das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco; Marinho, Marcos Wender Santiago; Pereira, José Marcelo Rodrigues; Martins, Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues; da Silva, Emerson Mariano

doi:10.1002/joc.7828

アイテム詳細

登録内容を編集ファイル形式で保存

一時保存へ追加

タグ情報を表示リリース履歴を表示詳細要約

公開

学術論文

Precipitation extremes over the tropical Americas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios: Results from dynamical downscaling simulations

Authors

Costa, Alexandre Araújo
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/oliveiraguimaraes

Guimarães, Sullyandro Oliveira
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Sales, Domingo Cassain
External Organizations;

das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco
External Organizations;

Marinho, Marcos Wender Santiago
External Organizations;

Pereira, José Marcelo Rodrigues
External Organizations;

Martins, Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues
External Organizations;

da Silva, Emerson Mariano
External Organizations;

URL

There are no locators available

フルテキスト (公開)

27348oa.pdf
(出版社版), 13MB

付随資料 (公開)

There is no public supplementary material available

引用

Costa, A. A., Guimarães, S. O., Sales, D. C., das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior, F., Marinho, M. W. S., Pereira, J. M. R., Martins, E. S. P. R., & da Silva, E. M. (2023). Precipitation extremes over the tropical Americas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios: Results from dynamical downscaling simulations. International Journal of Climatology, 43(2), 787-803. doi:10.1002/joc.7828.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27348

要旨

The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) driven by data from the CMIP5 Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES was used to simulate daily precipitation over the tropical Americas for both current and future climate, including distinct scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and different time horizons (short-term, mid-term and long-term changes). The major objective was to evaluate possible future changes in extreme events, with emphasis on the intensity of precipitation events and the duration of wet and dry spells. According to RAMS, longer dry spells are expected over most regions of the tropical Americas in the future, with indications for Northeast Brazil, Caribbean, Northern Amazon, and shorter wet spells over Central America and Amazon. With the exception of the Caribbean, there is a general tendency towards the increased frequency of intense precipitation in the tropical Americas.