Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with 
the Paris Agreement

Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Orlov, Anton; Windisch, Michael G.; Menke, Inga; Pongratz, Julia; Havermann, Felix; Thiery, Wim; Luo, Fei; von Jeetze, Patrick José; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Lejeune, Quentin

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35114-7

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Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement

Authors

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
External Organizations;

Orlov, Anton
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/michael.windisch

Windisch, Michael G.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Menke, Inga
External Organizations;

Pongratz, Julia
External Organizations;

Havermann, Felix
External Organizations;

Thiery, Wim
External Organizations;

Luo, Fei
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/vjeetze

von Jeetze, Patrick José
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jan.Dietrich

Dietrich, Jan Philipp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Isabelle.Weindl

Weindl, Isabelle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lejeune, Quentin
External Organizations;

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Citation

Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Schleussner, C.-F., Orlov, A., Windisch, M. G., Menke, I., Pongratz, J., Havermann, F., Thiery, W., Luo, F., von Jeetze, P. J., Dietrich, J. P., Lotze-Campen, H., Weindl, I., Lejeune, Q. (2022): Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. - Nature Communications, 13, 7453.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35114-7

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27624

Abstract

Transformation pathways for the land sector in line with the Paris Agreement depend on the assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pricing, and in some cases also on inclusive socio-economic devel- opment and sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, the majority of GHG emission reductions in the land system is expected to come from low- and middle-income countries, which currently account for a large share of emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). However, in low- and middle-income countries the economic, financial and institutional barriers for such transformative changes are high. Here, we show that if sustainable development in the land sector remained highly unequal and limited to high-income countries only, global AFOLU emissions would remain substantial throughout the 21st century. Our model-based projections high- light that overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. While also a scenario purely based on either global GHG emission pricing or on inclusive socio-economic development would achieve the stringent emissions reductions required, only the latter ensures major co-benefits for other Sustainable Development Goals, especially in low- and middle-income region.