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Journal Article

Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Authors
/persons/resource/johan.rockstrom

Rockström,  Johan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Gupta,  Joyeeta
External Organizations;

Qin,  Dahe
External Organizations;

Lade,  Steven J.
External Organizations;

Abrams,  Jesse F.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/andersen

Andersen,  Lauren
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Armstrong McKay,  David I.
External Organizations;

Bai,  Xuemei
External Organizations;

Bala,  Govindasamy
External Organizations;

Bunn,  Stuart E.
External Organizations;

Ciobanu,  Daniel
External Organizations;

DeClerck,  Fabrice
External Organizations;

Ebi,  Kristie
External Organizations;

Gifford,  Lauren
External Organizations;

Gordon,  Christopher
External Organizations;

Hasan,  Syezlin
External Organizations;

Kanie,  Norichika
External Organizations;

Lenton,  Timothy M.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sina.loriani

Loriani,  Sina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Liverman,  Diana M.
External Organizations;

Mohamed,  Awaz
External Organizations;

Nakicenovic,  Nebojsa
External Organizations;

Obura,  David
External Organizations;

Ospina,  Daniel
External Organizations;

Prodani,  Klaudia
External Organizations;

Rammelt,  Crelis
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Boris.Sakschewski

Sakschewski,  Boris
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Scholtens,  Joeri
External Organizations;

Stewart-Koster,  Ben
External Organizations;

Tharammal,  Thejna
External Organizations;

van Vuuren,  Detlef
External Organizations;

Verburg,  Peter H.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Ricarda.Winkelmann

Winkelmann,  Ricarda
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Zimm,  Caroline
External Organizations;

Bennett,  Elena M.
External Organizations;

Bringezu,  Stefan
External Organizations;

Broadgate,  Wendy
External Organizations;

Green,  Pamela A.
External Organizations;

Huang,  Lei
External Organizations;

Jacobson,  Lisa
External Organizations;

Ndehedehe,  Christopher
External Organizations;

Pedde,  Simona
External Organizations;

Rocha,  Juan
External Organizations;

Scheffer,  Marten
External Organizations;

Schulte-Uebbing,  Lena
External Organizations;

de Vries,  Wim
External Organizations;

Xiao,  Cunde
External Organizations;

Xu,  Chi
External Organizations;

Xu,  Xinwu
External Organizations;

Zafra-Calvo,  Noelia
External Organizations;

Zhang,  Xin
External Organizations;

External Ressource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (public)

28501oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 9MB

Supplementary Material (public)

41586_2023_6083_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
(Supplementary material), 2MB

Citation

Rockström, J., Gupta, J., Qin, D., Lade, S. J., Abrams, J. F., Andersen, L., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Bai, X., Bala, G., Bunn, S. E., Ciobanu, D., DeClerck, F., Ebi, K., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Hasan, S., Kanie, N., Lenton, T. M., Loriani, S., Liverman, D. M., Mohamed, A., Nakicenovic, N., Obura, D., Ospina, D., Prodani, K., Rammelt, C., Sakschewski, B., Scholtens, J., Stewart-Koster, B., Tharammal, T., van Vuuren, D., Verburg, P. H., Winkelmann, R., Zimm, C., Bennett, E. M., Bringezu, S., Broadgate, W., Green, P. A., Huang, L., Jacobson, L., Ndehedehe, C., Pedde, S., Rocha, J., Scheffer, M., Schulte-Uebbing, L., de Vries, W., Xiao, C., Xu, C., Xu, X., Zafra-Calvo, N., Zhang, X. (2023): Safe and just Earth system boundaries. - Nature, 619, 102-111.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28501
Abstract
The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked[1,2,3], yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently[4,5]. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)[4]. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.