Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term 
climate risk assessments

Persad, G.; Samset, B. H.; Wilcox, L. J.; Allen, Robert J.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Bonfils, Céline; Crocker, Tom; Joshi, Manoj; Lund, Marianne T.; Marvel, Kate; Merikanto, Joonas; Nordling, Kalle; Undorf, Sabine; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Westervelt, Daniel M.; Zhao, Alcide

doi:10.1088/2752-5295/acd6af

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Journal Article

Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Authors

Persad, G.
External Organizations;

Samset, B. H.
External Organizations;

Wilcox, L. J.
External Organizations;

Allen, Robert J.
External Organizations;

Bollasina, Massimo A.
External Organizations;

Booth, Ben B. B.
External Organizations;

Bonfils, Céline
External Organizations;

Crocker, Tom
External Organizations;

Joshi, Manoj
External Organizations;

Lund, Marianne T.
External Organizations;

Marvel, Kate
External Organizations;

Merikanto, Joonas
External Organizations;

Nordling, Kalle
External Organizations;

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Undorf, Sabine
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

van Vuuren, Detlef P.
External Organizations;

Westervelt, Daniel M.
External Organizations;

Zhao, Alcide
External Organizations;

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Persad_2023_Environ._Res. _Climate_2_032001.pdf
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Citation

Persad, G., Samset, B. H., Wilcox, L. J., Allen, R. J., Bollasina, M. A., Booth, B. B. B., Bonfils, C., Crocker, T., Joshi, M., Lund, M. T., Marvel, K., Merikanto, J., Nordling, K., Undorf, S., van Vuuren, D. P., Westervelt, D. M., Zhao, A. (2023): Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments. - Environmental Research: Climate, 2, 032001.
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acd6af

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29303

Abstract

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols' climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols' complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society's ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.