English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
Add to Basket
  Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released
Journal Article

Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate

Authors

Stalhandske,  Zélie
External Organizations;

Steinmann,  Carmen B.
External Organizations;

Meiler,  Simona
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/inga.sauer

Sauer,  Inga
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/thomas.vogt

Vogt,  Thomas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bresch,  David N.
External Organizations;

Kropf,  Chahan M.
External Organizations;

External Ressource
Fulltext (public)

s41598-024-55775-2.pdf
(Publisher version), 3MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Stalhandske, Z., Steinmann, C. B., Meiler, S., Sauer, I., Vogt, T., Bresch, D. N., Kropf, C. M. (2024): Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate. - Scientific Reports, 14, 5875.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55775-2


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29861
Abstract
Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of single hazards, ignoring the effects of multi-hazard risks and potentially leading to underestimations or overestimations of risks. In this work, we present a framework for modelling multi-hazard risks globally in a consistent way, considering hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and assumptions on recovery. We illustrate the approach using river floods and tropical cyclones impacting people and physical assets on a global scale in a changing climate. To ensure physical consistency, we combine single hazard models that were driven by the same climate model realizations. Our results show that incorporating common physical drivers and recovery considerably alters the multi-hazard risk. We finally demonstrate how our framework can accommodate more than two hazards and integrate diverse assumptions about recovery processes based on a national case study. This framework is implemented in the open-source climate risk assessment platform CLIMADA and can be applied to various hazards and exposures, providing a more comprehensive approach to risk management than conventional methods.